Aluminium Surges 10% in a Month as Iran War Chokes Middle Eastern Supplies

Synopsis: Aluminium prices surged 10% in March 2026 as Middle East conflict crippled global supply, while copper and other base metals fell amid broader economic fears.

Aluminium is defying a broader commodities slump, charging toward its most significant monthly gain in nearly two years. Three-month futures on the London Metal Exchange climbed to $3,470.15 per tonne on Tuesday, marking a 0.80% daily increase and locking in a massive 10% surge for March 2026.

This rally represents the metal’s strongest monthly performance since April 2024. While other base metals face a sharp sell-off amid global economic uncertainty, aluminium remains a stark outlier, bolstered by tightening supply and geopolitical volatility.

Why aluminium is surging while other metals fall

A widening Middle East conflict has triggered a decoupling in the metals market, sending aluminium prices soaring while other base metals retreat. The surge is driven by the region’s critical role in global production; the Persian Gulf accounts for roughly 10% of global primary output, now largely stranded due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Supply anxieties reached a fever pitch following reports of drone and missile strikes targeting major facilities operated by Aluminium Bahrain BSC and Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA). Analysts warn the stakes are historic: a long-term outage at EGA’s Al-Taweelah plant alone could flip the global market from a 200,000-tonne surplus to a staggering 1.3 million-tonne deficit for 2026.

As physical premiums spike in Japan and other importing hubs, desperate buyers are pivoting toward China to fill the void. This supply-side shock stands in sharp contrast to copper and nickel, which continue to buckle under the weight of rising energy costs and fears of a war-induced global slowdown.

What about other metals

While aluminium climbs, the broader base metals complex is buckling under the weight of geopolitical and economic headwinds. Copper, zinc, and nickel are all tracking toward sharp monthly losses for March, as skyrocketing energy costs and fears of a war-induced global recession dampen investor appetite.

Copper, often viewed as an economic bellwether, remained stagnant at $12,242 per tonne on Tuesday. The metal is currently down more than 8% for the month, marking its bleakest performance since mid-2022.

Market sentiment saw a brief, volatile uptick following a Wall Street Journal report suggesting U.S. President Donald Trump may be open to de-escalating military operations, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains obstructed. However, with the conflict unresolved and the global supply chain in disarray, commodity markets remain on edge, viewing any potential recovery as fragile at best.

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