Bullish on Telecom? Here’s why India’s telecom sector may be entering its peak decade

Synopsis: India’s telecom sector is a vibrant and rapidly growing market with over 1.22 billion subscribers as of mid-2025, showing steady monthly gains. Wireless connections dominate, with urban tele-density exceeding 126%, while rural areas also continue to improve.

Data consumption is soaring, supported by a strong 5G rollout, pushing India to lead globally in mobile data usage per user. The sector’s market size is projected to reach over USD 70 billion by 2033, driven by expanding digital adoption and connectivity across the country.

Telecom Revenue Boom

India’s telecom sector is set for a strong rebound, with revenues expected to touch a record $35 billion ( Rs 3.12 lakh crore) this fiscal as Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio tighten their dominance. The industry has smoothly absorbed last year’s tariff hikes with limited churn, marking a sharp turnaround from the $15 billion trough in FY19 after brutal price wars and consolidation.

With another round of tariff hikes on the cards, industry revenues are projected to rise to $39 billion in FY27, according to Jefferies. The brokerage expects the sector to grow at a 14% CAGR, reaching $45 billion by FY28, with market share remaining broadly stable—marking the strongest growth phase in more than a decade.

Sector ARPU is set to cross  Rs 200 this year, signalling a return to sustainable profitability. Jefferies expects ARPU to reach  Rs 215 in FY26 and climb to  Rs 266 by FY28. Meanwhile, JM Financial noted Q2 revenue grew 1.4% QoQ and 9.6% YoY to  Rs 74,700 crore, aided by an extra day.

Further, growth is being driven by rising subscriber additions and telcos’ steady premiumisation push through mobile broadband upgrades, prepaid-to-postpaid migrations, better data monetisation, and higher international roaming usage, strengthening overall revenue quality.

Revenue Momentum

In revenue market share terms, Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel strengthened their leadership, while Vodafone Idea continued to lose ground. Jio’s AGR rose 1.5% QoQ and 10.5% YoY to Rs 31,300 crore, lifting its market share by 4 basis points to 41.9%, aided by robust subscriber additions across most circles.

Moreover, Bharti Airtel delivered even stronger momentum, with AGR rising 2.6% QoQ and 11.6% YoY to  Rs 30,300 crore. Ongoing premiumisation drove growth across all 22 telecom circles, lifting its revenue market share by 49 basis points to 40.6%, with gains recorded in 16 circles.

Further, Vodafone Idea reported a  0.8% QoQ decline in revenue to  Rs 10,100 crore, weighed down by a sharp  14% fall in NLD/ILD revenue. As a result, its market share slipped 29 basis points to 13.6%, even as 4G expansion aided performance in metros and category-A circles.

Conclusion

From an analyst’s perspective, India’s telecom is entering a structural upcycle led by stronger pricing power, rising ARPU and disciplined competition. Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel are best placed to compound cash flows, while Vodafone Idea remains challenged despite network upgrades. If tariff momentum sustains, the sector’s strongest decade may just be unfolding.

Written by Abhishek Singh

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