Can AvenuesAI’s Revenue Be Impacted by Apple Pay’s Entry Into India?

Synopsis: AvenuesAI raised its FY26 guidance to Rs. 7,500–8,000 cr revenue, showing confidence in growth and merchant economics, with Apple Pay’s India entry seen as a limited threat to its core payment gateway and backend business.

The shares of this company are in the business of software development services, maintenance, web development, payment gateway services, e-commerce and other ancillary services are in the spotlight after its management revised its guidance. With a market capitalisation of Rs. 5,635 cr, the shares of AvenuesAI Ltd closed at Rs. 16.17 per share, decreasing from its previous close of Rs. 16.57 per share. 

Guidance 

For FY26, the company initially guided gross revenue in the range of Rs. 5,000–5,500 crore, which has now been revised upward to Rs. 7,500–8,000 crore. Net revenue guidance has been increased from Rs. 540–600 crore to Rs. 600–630 crore. 

EBITDA is now expected to be between Rs. 350–375 crore, compared to the earlier estimate of Rs. 325–350 crore. Similarly, PAT guidance has been raised from Rs. 210–220 crore to Rs. 250–275 crore, reflecting improved growth expectations for the year.

Apple Pay’s India Entry 

Apple’s reported plan to launch Apple Pay in India by mid-2026, with discussions involving major banks such as HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Axis Bank, is strategically aimed at strengthening its premium ecosystem. 

However, Apple Pay’s initial impact is likely to be concentrated in urban segments and high-end retail merchants, rather than the broader merchant network where AvenuesAI has scale and long-standing integrations.

For AvenuesAI, the key factor is merchant economics rather than customer adoption alone. Apple Pay primarily operates on existing card networks and depends on issuing banks, which means it does not fundamentally alter the underlying payment rails. 

AvenuesAI, with its established relationships across banks, merchants, and payment infrastructure, remains embedded in backend processing and gateway services. Therefore, while Apple Pay may influence the premium transaction mix, it does not necessarily displace gateway players outright.

Given the revised guidance numbers, AvenuesAI appears confident in sustaining transaction growth, improving monetisation, and maintaining operating leverage. The upgrade to Rs. 8,000 crore gross revenue and Rs. 275 crore PAT suggests that management does not foresee material near-term disruption from Apple’s entry. 

In conclusion, while Apple Pay’s India entry could intensify competition in the premium payments segment, AvenuesAI’s upgraded FY26 guidance indicates resilience and growth visibility. Delivering Rs. 8,000 crore gross revenue and Rs. 275 crore PAT will depend more on transaction scale, merchant retention, and margin discipline than on competitive noise from ecosystem-driven entrants like Apple.

Q3 performance

In Q3 FY26, the company served over 10 million merchants and recorded a total payment volume (TPV) of Rs. 1.36 trillion. Financially, it posted a gross revenue of Rs. 2,381.2 crore (+122% YoY), net revenue of Rs. 148.5 crore (+6% YoY), EBITDA of Rs. 98.1 crore (+25% YoY) with a margin of 66%, and a PAT of Rs. 86.1 crore (+59% YoY) with a margin of 58%. Payments NTR was 6.1 basis points, down 45% YoY.

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