Can Nifty hit 30,000 this year after the India–US Trade Deal?

Synopsis: JPMorgan reiterated its Nifty 30,000 target for 2026 after the India–US trade deal cut US tariffs on Indian exports from 50 percent to 18 percent, boosting export competitiveness, earnings visibility, and foreign investment sentiment.

Today India and the United States officially sealed a major bilateral trade agreement aimed at ending months of tariff tensions and boosting economic ties between the world’s two largest democracies. 

Under the deal announced by U.S. President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the United States has agreed to cut tariffs on Indian goods to about 18 percent, down sharply from previous effective rates as high as 50 percent (which included a 25 percent base tariff plus an extra 25 percent levy tied to India’s Russian oil imports). 

In exchange, India has agreed to stop purchasing Russian oil, boost purchases of U.S. goods including energy, technology, agricultural products, and defence equipment, and significantly reduce its own tariffs on American imports reportedly to zero for many categories, as part of broader market-opening commitments. The agreement is seen as giving Indian exports a competitive edge over exporters from China, Indonesia, Vietnam and Bangladesh due to the relatively lower U.S. tariff rate. 

Officials also highlighted expected positive impacts on both economies: lower trade barriers should support exports, strengthen investment sentiment, and improve market performance with Indian financial markets reacting strongly (major indices and the rupee gained after the announcement).

Today, the market has given a gap up opening with 4.86 percent increase from yesterday’s close price of 25088.4 to 26308.05, whereas sensex opened to 85,323.20 from 81,666.46, increase of 4.5 percent

JPMorgan Reiterates Nifty 30,000 Target

Global brokerage JPMorgan has reaffirmed its year-end 2026 target of 30,000 points for India’s benchmark Nifty-50 index. The bullish stance follows the announcement of a landmark India–US trade deal, which is expected to improve bilateral trade relations and support earnings growth for key sectors. 

Key Provisions of the India–US Trade Deal

The trade agreement brings significant tariff reductions and trade facilitation measures. The United States has cut country-specific tariffs on Indian goods from 50 percent to 18 percent, while India has agreed to eliminate tariffs and non-tariff barriers on US goods, along with boosting imports of US goods and energy. Although Section 232 tariffs on automobiles, steel, and aluminium remain unchanged, the deal is expected to benefit a range of export-oriented sectors.

JPMorgan highlighted sectors likely to see positive impacts, including textiles and apparel, gems and jewellery, engineering goods, chemicals, leather, and footwear. The brokerage also expects the agreement to enhance earnings visibility for broader export-oriented industries such as agriculture, manufacturing, IT, and pharmaceuticals, as the risk premium associated with trade uncertainties reduces.

A comprehensive bilateral trade agreement could attract increased foreign investment, support a stronger rupee, and improve overall market confidence. This makes Indian equities more attractive for global investors, adding further momentum to the expected rally in Nifty-50.

The India–US trade breakthrough, combined with favorable sectoral impact, foreign investment inflows, and a stronger rupee, underpins JPMorgan’s bullish outlook. With these tailwinds, the brokerage continues to project the Nifty-50 reaching 30,000 points by the end of 2026, marking a significant milestone for Indian equities.

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