Could Crude Oil Hit $150 This Month? Here’s What It Means For You

Synopsis: Oil hit $116 per barrel, up 85% this year, and could reach $150 amid the Hormuz crisis. India faces tough times with fuel prices jumping ₹26-30 per litre and ₹3 trillion LPG costs. Nifty may drop further as the global oil shock hits hard.

Oil prices are racing toward historic highs and the world is bracing for what comes next. The price of crude oil has crossed $116 per barrel. It has surged 56% in March alone and gained 85% since the start of the year. The all-time high stands at $147.50, set in July 2008. Now, traders and economists believe that record is within reach or could even be broken before April ends.

Markets Are Already Betting On $150

Brent crude sat around $72 per barrel in January. It has now crossed $116. Options traders have already priced in a serious probability of oil crossing $150. Open interest in $150 call options has risen tenfold in weeks from 3,374 lots to 28,941. Interest in $160 calls has jumped from zero to 14,676 lots. Someone has even bought $300 June call options. Each lot represents 1,000 barrels. The $150 call positions alone represent nearly $3 billion in exposure.

French bank Societe Generale calls $150 a “credible” outcome if the war continues. Most analysts estimate crude hitting $130–$140. Australian bank Macquarie forecasts $200 is possible if the conflict extends into June.

What Triggered This Crisis

The Strait of Hormuz handles 17–20 million barrels per day one-fifth of all oil that moves globally. Since the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict began on February 28, ship transits through the Strait have fallen by 95%. As a result, benchmark oil prices have soared more than 50%.

On the other hand, the damage to Middle East energy infrastructure is staggering. Rystad Energy estimates the repair cost at a minimum of $25 billion. At least 40 energy assets across nine countries have been severely damaged oil fields, refineries, and pipelines.

Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex, the world’s largest LNG supplier, lost 17% of its capacity. Iraq’s Zubair oilfield saw output cut by 21%. Bahrain’s BAPCO refinery, commissioned just three months ago after a $7 billion upgrade, was struck twice.

IEA head Fatih Birol called this crisis “worse than the two oil shocks of the 1970s and the Russia-Ukraine war on gas, put together.” He warned that “April will be much worse than March.”

Why Recovery Will Take Years, Not Weeks

President Trump has said prices will “rapidly come back down” once the conflict ends. The reality is more complicated. The large turbines needed to power LNG facilities are made by only three manufacturers worldwide: GE Vernova, Siemens, and Mitsubishi Power. All three began 2026 with production backlogs of two to four years. They were already behind schedule before the conflict. Rystad warns that full recovery of the worst-hit assets “could take up to five years.”

This is not like a demand shock, where prices fall when spending slows. This is a supply shock caused by physical destruction. Infrastructure does not recover because of policy announcements. It recovers only when it is rebuilt and that takes time.

For comparison: after the 1973 Arab oil embargo, prices did not return to pre-crisis levels. They stayed elevated for years. The 1979 oil shock kept prices high until 1986. Today’s damage is physical, not just political.

What This Means For India

India imports more than 85% of its crude oil. About half of that has historically transited the Strait of Hormuz. The impact is already visible. The rupee has hit 94 to the dollar. Foreign institutional investors have withdrawn $12 billion from Indian equities in the past month. The Nifty 50 has shed 8.8% in March. Analysts warn of a further 10–15% correction if prices stay elevated.

At $125 per barrel, petrol and diesel prices may need to rise by Rs 8–14 per litre. At $150, that adjustment could reach Rs 26–30 per litre. Every dollar increase in crude adds approximately Rs 1 per kilogram to LPG under-recovery. At $150, the LPG subsidy burden alone could reach an estimated Rs 3 trillion.

India’s oil trade deficit, if prices hold through FY27, could approach $220 billion pushing the current account deficit past 3% of GDP. That same threshold, in 2012–13, preceded a currency crisis. Sectors in the direct line of fire include refining, aviation, paints, fertilisers, and petrochemicals. Banks and NBFCs face downstream pressure too.

There are some cushions. Iranian officials have signalled Indian-flagged vessels may receive safe passage. Russian crude, available through non-Gulf routes, provides an alternative. However, these buffers are limited and depend on others choices.

Oxford Economics has modelled what sustained $150 oil does globally. After four months at that level, world inflation reaches 7.7%. Global GDP falls approximately two percentage points. The Eurozone, the UK, and Japan contract.

BlackRock’s Larry Fink has warned that years of oil near $150 would mean “a probable stark and steep recession.” JPMorgan’s head of global economics has said one further month of Hormuz closure is “consistent with” prices approaching $150.

The emergency reserve releases announced by 32 IEA nations totalling 426 million barrels are “not sufficient,” according to UBS. The maximum release rate is around 3 million barrels per day. The shortfall from the war is estimated at 15 million barrels per day.

The Gulf’s infrastructure will eventually be rebuilt. Prices will, in some form, come down from their peak. But the timeline is measured in years, not weeks and the cost, for India and the world, is already being paid.

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