Will Gold Prices Hit ₹1.82 Lakh Anytime Soon?

Synopsis: Gold has emerged as one of the market’s most surprising movers, surging due to geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, expectations of future interest rate cuts, and strong demand. JPMorgan remains optimistic, projecting that gold could reach its all-time high again in the coming months.

Gold, known as the Yellow Metal, has delivered one of 2025’s biggest market surprises, surging over 75 percent last year and rising more than 30 percent this year, according to MCX gold futures data.

In this article, let’s take an analyst’s views on gold and explore the possibility of it reaching Rs. 1,82,313 per ten gram in the near future, considering the current market trends and investor sentiments. 

The recent surge in gold prices reflects broad investor and central bank demand amid global economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks. Low real yields and expectations for future interest rate cuts have made gold,  which pays no interest, more attractive relative to bonds and cash. 

Central banks are adding substantial amounts to their reserves, providing structural demand that tightens available supply. At the same time, strong investment flows into gold‑backed ETFs and sustained physical gold purchases have maintained high demand, collectively pushing prices higher. Overall, a combination of economic instability, political unrest, and currency fluctuations has driven the recent rally in gold prices.

JP Morgan on gold

JP Morgan lifted its long-term gold price and reiterated its projection that bullion could reach $6,300 an ounce by the end of 2026, pointing to sustained institutional demand and portfolio diversification trends.

As JPMorgan has stated that gold could reach $6,300 per ounce by late 2026, let’s calculate it for 10 grams. To find the price of 10 grams of gold at a target of $6,300 per ounce, we first converted the ounce price to a per-gram price by dividing $6,300 by 31.10 grams, giving approximately $202.57 per gram.

Then, multiplying by 10 grams gave $2,025.7 for 10 grams. Finally, converting to INR at an exchange rate of 90 gave approximately Rs. 1,82,313. The current market price of gold futures on MCX is trading around Rs. 1,60,375, and JPMorgan’s target of Rs. 1,82,313 indicates an upside potential of up to 14 percent.

When converting a commodity price from USD per ounce to INR, the calculation is purely mathematical and does not include any deviations such as taxes, duties, GST, cess, or market premiums; these are applied separately on top of the converted price.

Rationale

JPMorgan remains bullish on gold through 2026, citing strong demand from central banks and investors, along with geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of Federal Reserve policy easing. These factors are supporting prices and could push gold toward $6,300 per ounce by late 2026.

The bank attributes gold’s rise over the past year to sustained central bank purchases, inflows into bullion-backed ETFs, and lower interest rates, which enhance the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.

Bank of America on Gold 

In a separate note, Bank of America highlighted a striking outlook for gold, projecting it could rise to $6,000 per ounce within the next 12 months. However, the bank cautioned that silver may struggle in the near term, suggesting it could encounter additional pressure before regaining momentum, underscoring the difference in outlook between the two precious metals.

Analysts’ opinions on silver remain divided, reflecting uncertainty in the market. Unlike gold, which has shown strong bullish signals, silver is expected to face some short-term challenges that could weigh on its price before any sustained recovery. Investors are watching carefully for signs of renewed demand or shifts in market dynamics that could influence its trajectory.

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