Will Vedanta share price be able to cross ₹800 as metal prices soar?

Synopsis:- The stock trades near ₹672 with a brokerage target of ₹806, implying 27% upside. Demerger plans, EBITDA CAGR of 20%, aluminium expansion to 525 kA, 3.5 MTPA alumina addition, and power capacity rising by 1,000 MW support long-term rerating potential.

The Diversified Metals sector powers global industries by extracting and processing a wide array of metals like copper, aluminum, nickel, and zinc. In 2025, it produced over 25 million tonnes of copper alone, fueling electric vehicles and renewables. Facing volatile prices—up 15% YoY—and supply chain hurdles, the sector eyes 8-10% growth in 2026 amid rising infrastructure demand worldwide.

With a market capitalisation of Rs 2,62,778.08 crore, the shares of Vedanta Ltd were trading at Rs 672.00 per share, increasing around 5.29 percent as compared to the previous closing price of Rs 637.10 apiece.

Brokerage Recommendation 

Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. has initiated a Buy call on the metal stock, setting a target price of  Rs 806 per share. This implies a potential upside of around 27% from the previous close of  Rs 637.10, reflecting confidence in the company’s fundamentals and sector outlook.

Vedanta is nearing the final stage of securing statutory approvals for its demerger into five separate listed companies, a move expected to unlock significant shareholder value. Nuvama noted that favourable commodity prices, ongoing cost efficiencies, and volume growth further strengthen its positive investment outlook.

The brokerage has raised its EBITDA estimates for Vedanta by 17% for FY27 and 8% for FY28, factoring in stronger commodity prices. According to Nuvama, the improved pricing environment is expected to drive Vedanta’s EBITDA at a healthy 20% CAGR over FY25–FY28.

The commissioning roadmap outlines aggressive expansion across segments. FY26 includes aluminium smelter expansion to 525 kA, alumina capacity addition of 3.5 MTPA, zinc debottlenecking of 21 KTPA, and 1,000 MW power capacity. FY27–FY28 targets smelter expansion to 3.1 MTPA, steel capacity doubling to 2.8 MTPA.

The company posted modest top-line growth in Q2FY26, with revenue rising 6% to  Rs 39,868 crore. However, profitability weakened sharply as net profit declined 38% to  Rs 3,479 crore, indicating margin pressure or higher costs. The divergence suggests operational challenges despite steady demand conditions.

Over the past one year, Vedanta’s operating performance remained resilient. Operating profit improved from Rs 9,828 crore in Q2FY25 to  Rs 11,396 crore in Q2FY26, reflecting higher volumes and better realizations. Operating margin also expanded from 26% to 29%, indicating improved cost efficiency despite commodity volatility and operational challenges.

Vedanta Ltd is a diversified natural resources major with operations spanning aluminium, zinc, oil & gas, iron ore, steel and power. The company plays a key role in India’s metals ecosystem, supported by large-scale assets, strong integration, and an ongoing focus on capacity expansion and cost efficiency.

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