Gold Rate: Will The Prices Cross ₹1,70,000 Anytime soon?

SYNOPSIS: Gold’s record rally continues as uncertainty drives demand, ETFs rebound and Goldman Sachs raises its 2026 target to $5,400 per ounce, citing strong private investor and central-bank buying.

A lot of news has been grabbing headlines lately – the rupee slipping to a record low, FIIs pulling money out, disappointing results from heavyweight companies like RIL, geopolitical noise around Greenland, and above all, nonstop talks around gold and silver.

And gold? It’s on a strong rally, showing no signs of slowing down. As of Friday, gold touched a fresh all-time high of more than Rs. 1.6 lakhs per 10 grams (24K). Seen as a safe haven in uncertain times, the yellow metal has surged nearly 93 percent over the past year.

Adding to the excitement, gold and silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs) staged a sharp rebound on 23rd January, rising by as much as 17 percent after a brief correction. This bounce came just a day after a steep fall following a record rally, as tariff worries eased. While ETFs are still below their recent peaks, the precious metals have raced to new lifetime highs.

Goldman Sachs on Gold

The powerful rally has now received a strong validation from Goldman Sachs, which raised its end-2026 gold price target to $5,400 per ounce – roughly Rs. 1,75,160 per 10 grams. This is a notable upgrade from its earlier forecast of $4,900 per ounce, or about Rs. 1,58,960 per 10 grams.

According to sources, the more-than-10 percent upward revision reflects what Goldman sees as a structural shift in demand. The brokerage believes private investors and emerging-market central banks are steadily diversifying away from traditional reserve assets, keeping gold firmly in favour.

Why Goldman Is More Bullish Now

Brokerage’s optimism rests heavily on private-sector demand. These investors, who are using gold as a hedge against global policy uncertainty, are unlikely to unwind positions anytime soon, especially into 2026. This has repeatedly pushed prices beyond earlier estimates, effectively lifting gold’s base level to long-term prices.

Support is also expected from Western markets. Gold-backed ETFs, which saw outflows during high interest-rate phases, could witness renewed inflows as the Federal Reserve pivots toward easier monetary policy. Goldman expects the Fed to cut rates by around 50 basis points (bps) in 2026 – an environment that typically favours non-yielding assets like gold.

Central banks remain another key pillar of support. Goldman projects average purchases by central banks of about 60 tonnes in 2026, largely driven by emerging economies looking to diversify reserves in the middle of rising geopolitical tensions and shifting global power dynamics.

However, the brokerage flagged one potential risk. If long-term uncertainty around global monetary policy fades, it could possibly trigger profit-taking of macro investors – a scenario that may weigh on prices and take a bit of shine off gold’s rally.

In a nutshell, while gold continues to benefit from strong momentum, supportive macro conditions and institutional interest, its outlook will likely remain sensitive to shifts in global monetary policy, investor risk appetite and geopolitical developments going forward.

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