Hyundai Motor Share: Can it Regain Market Share and Drive Growth Through New Launches? 

Synopsis: Hyundai Motor India has been initiated with a Buy rating target, driven by new launches, capacity expansion, and export growth. Market share is expected to gradually recover from 12.5% to 12.9% by FY28.

The shares of one of India’s leading passenger vehicle manufacturers, known for its diverse portfolio of hatchbacks, sedans, and SUVs, are in the spotlight after forecasts indicated that its market share could gradually recover to 12.9% by FY28.

With a market capitalisation of Rs. 1,60,818 cr, the shares of Hyundai Motor India Ltd closed at Rs. 1979 per share, up from its previous close of Rs. 1,980 per share. The stock has delivered a 2% return over the last year, but is down 15% year-to-date and 13% over the last six months, while showing a strong rebound of 11% in the past month.  

What’s the News

Hyundai Motor India has been initiated by Elara Capital with a Buy rating and a target price of Rs. 2,390, which is an upside of 21% from current levels, reflecting an optimistic long-term view driven by product pipeline expansion, capacity growth, and export diversification.

On the demand and market share front, the brokerage notes that Hyundai’s domestic market share has declined to around 12.5% in FY26 due to intensified competition in the passenger vehicle segment. However, it expects this to be the bottoming phase, with a gradual recovery to 12.9% by FY28, supported by new model introductions and refreshed product positioning.

Growth Drivers 

A key growth driver highlighted is the company’s aggressive product and platform strategy. Hyundai is planning two new model launches in FY27, along with a broader roadmap of 26 launches by FY30, including seven new nameplates. This pipeline is expected to strengthen its presence across key segments such as SUVs, premium hatchbacks, and emerging mobility categories.

On the manufacturing side, the expansion of the Talegaon facility is a major long-term catalyst. Once fully ramped up, total production capacity is expected to reach 1.14 million units by FY30, giving Hyundai stronger scalability to meet both domestic demand and export requirements.

Exports are also a central theme in the outlook. The company aims to increase the share of exports to 30% of total production by FY30, up from 21% in FY26, despite near-term geopolitical and demand headwinds in regions such as the Middle East. This diversification is expected to improve utilization and reduce reliance on the domestic market.

The note also factors in macro support from the anticipated 8th Pay Commission, which is expected to provide incremental demand tailwinds, particularly as government employees account for roughly 16% of Hyundai’s revenue exposure. Alongside this, the brokerage projects domestic volume growth of 6.5% in FY27 and 10.5% in FY28, indicating a gradual acceleration in demand.

Finally, the valuation is based on 26x June 2028 estimated earnings per share (EPS), suggesting that the stock’s upside is being priced on a medium-term earnings recovery cycle supported by product refresh, capacity expansion, and export-led growth.

Hyundai Motor India is one of the leading passenger vehicle manufacturers in India and a subsidiary of the global Hyundai Motor Company. It produces a wide range of cars including hatchbacks, sedans, and SUVs, with a strong presence in both domestic and export markets. The company is known for its focus on design, features, and technology-driven offerings, and continues to expand its capacity and product lineup to strengthen its position in India’s highly competitive automobile industry.

It reported mixed performance in Q4FY26 with sales rising 5% YoY to Rs. 18,916 crore from Rs. 17,940 crore. However, profitability declined sharply, as EBITDA fell 22% to Rs. 1,966 crore from Rs. 2,533 crore, net profit dropped 22% to Rs. 1,256 crore from Rs. 1,614 crore, and EPS also decreased 22% to Rs. 15.45 from Rs. 19.87. 

It is entering its next phase of growth driven by new-age product offerings such as the New Verna and New Exter. These models are expected to strengthen its market position by catering to evolving customer preferences and boosting demand in the passenger vehicle segment. 

It reported total sales of 775,031 units in FY26, marking a 1.7% year-on-year (YoY) growth compared to 762,052 units in FY25. This reflects overall stable performance, supported mainly by strong export growth despite domestic softness.

In terms of segment-wise performance, domestic sales stood at 584,906 units, registering a 2.3% YoY decline from 598,666 units in FY25. This indicates continued competitive pressure in the Indian passenger vehicle market, which has weighed on local volumes even as demand remains steady.

On the other hand, export sales showed strong momentum, rising 16.4% YoY to 190,125 units compared to 163,386 units in FY25. This sharp increase highlights Hyundai’s growing focus on international markets and its ability to diversify demand beyond domestic headwinds.

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