Varun Beverages, ITC & Others: Which FMCG Stock Is Expected To Deliver The Highest Growth In Q4? 

Synopsis: FMCG companies like ITC Ltd, Britannia Industries Ltd, Hindustan Unilever Ltd, Varun Beverages Ltd, and Tata Consumer Products Ltd are expected to report a mixed Q4FY26, with improving volumes supporting growth while rising input costs keep margins under pressure. The results will offer a clearer view of how each company is navigating demand recovery and cost challenges.

As the Q4FY26 results season approaches, FMCG stocks are back in focus with one key question, which companies are set to deliver stronger growth this quarter? While demand is showing early signs of recovery, rising input costs and global uncertainties continue to create mixed expectations. The upcoming results could offer a clearer signal on who is managing this balance better.

What Are The Expectations?

According to Elara Capital, the FMCG sector is expected to see a sequential improvement in Q4FY26, led by better volume growth. Excluding ITC, volumes are estimated to grow around 7 percent, slightly higher than 6.5 percent in Q3FY26, indicating a gradual demand recovery. However, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain a key risk, as they could push up input costs and impact margins. While larger companies may manage this better due to stronger sourcing and inventory, prolonged inflation could hurt consumer spending and slow premiumisation.

On the cost front, availability of crude-based inputs has become a concern, particularly for categories like home care, insecticides, and deodorants. Key raw materials such as LABSA have seen sharp price increases, affecting smaller and regional players more due to lower inventory levels and reliance on intermediaries. In contrast, larger players like Hindustan Unilever Ltd could gain market share. Some regional companies have already taken steep price hikes, while gas shortages are expected to impact aerosol-based products, especially in the insecticide segment.

Commodity trends were relatively stable earlier in the quarter, but have turned volatile after the Middle East tensions, with crude-linked inputs and vegetable oil prices rising. Palm oil has seen a month-on-month increase, while copra and tea prices have moderated sequentially. Overall, home and personal care companies are expected to face higher margin pressure compared to food companies due to their greater exposure to chemical and crude-based inputs, making input cost movement a key factor to watch going ahead.

What Are The Estimates?

On the financial front, Elara Capital expects a mixed but steady Q4FY26 performance across major FMCG players. For ITC Ltd, revenue is estimated at Rs. 17,951.3 crore, reflecting a growth of 4.1 percent year-on-year but a decline of 0.4 percent quarter-on-quarter. EBITDA is expected at Rs. 6,395 crore, rising 6.8 percent year-on-year and 2 percent quarter-on-quarter, with margins at 35.6 percent. Adjusted net profit is likely at Rs. 5,220.8 crore, increasing 7.1 percent year-on-year and 2.6 percent quarter-on-quarter, with an adjusted net profit margin of 29 percent.

For Britannia Industries Ltd, revenue is estimated at Rs. 4,833.1 crore, up 9 percent year-on-year but down 2.8 percent quarter-on-quarter. EBITDA is expected at Rs. 916.6 crore, growing 13.8 percent year-on-year but declining 6.5 percent quarter-on-quarter, with margins at 18.9 percent. Adjusted net profit is likely at Rs. 659.9 crore, rising 17.8 percent year-on-year but falling 3 percent quarter-on-quarter, with an adjusted net profit margin of 13.65 percent.

Hindustan Unilever Ltd is expected to report revenue of Rs. 16,687.2 crore, up 6.5 percent year-on-year and 1.9 percent quarter-on-quarter. EBITDA is seen at Rs. 3,883.4 crore, increasing 7.3 percent year-on-year and 4.4 percent quarter-on-quarter, with margins at 23.27 percent. Adjusted net profit is estimated at Rs. 2,699 crore, rising 3.3 percent year-on-year and 2.5 percent quarter-on-quarter, with an adjusted net profit margin of 16.17 percent.

Among others, Varun Beverages Ltd is expected to report revenue of Rs. 6,030 crore, growing 8.3 percent year-on-year and 43.4 percent quarter-on-quarter. EBITDA is likely at Rs. 1,265.1 crore, broadly flat year-on-year but rising 97.9 percent quarter-on-quarter, with margins at 21 percent. Adjusted net profit is estimated at Rs. 739.8 crore, increasing 1.8 percent year-on-year and 193.8 percent quarter-on-quarter, with an adjusted net profit margin of 12.2 percent.

Meanwhile, Tata Consumer Products Ltd is expected to post revenue of Rs. 5,322.5 crore, up 15.5 percent year-on-year and 4.1 percent quarter-on-quarter. EBITDA is seen at Rs. 773.3 crore, rising 24.5 percent year-on-year and 7.3 percent quarter-on-quarter, with margins at 14.52 percent. Adjusted net profit is likely at Rs. 407.3 crore, increasing 36 percent year-on-year and remaining largely flat on a quarter-on-quarter basis, with an adjusted net profit margin of 7.65 percent.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts/broking houses/rating agencies on tradebrains.in are their own, and not that of the website or its management. Investing in equities poses a risk of financial losses. Investors must therefore exercise due caution while investing or trading in stocks. Trade Brains Technologies Private Limited or the author are not liable for any losses caused as a result of the decision based on this article. Please consult your investment advisor before investing.

The post Varun Beverages, ITC & Others: Which FMCG Stock Is Expected To Deliver The Highest Growth In Q4?  appeared first on Trade Brains.