Adani Green Energy Q4 Results: How Is the Adani Stock Expected to Perform?

Synopsis: Adani Green Energy heads into Q4 results with expectations of strong sequential growth but continued pressure on year-on-year profitability due to generation challenges. With grid issues expected to ease and capacity expansion continuing, can improving execution and transmission support drive a stronger earnings recovery ahead?

The company has informed that a meeting of its Board of Directors is scheduled to be held on Friday, April 24, 2026, to consider and approve the audited standalone and consolidated financial results for the quarter and financial year ended March 31, 2026.

Further, in continuation of its earlier communication, the company has also shared details of the investor and analyst calls planned for April 24, 2026, where the management will discuss the financial performance and business outlook. Here are the estimates from ICICI Securities an investor should consider before the results come in.

What Are The Expectations?

According to ICICI Securities, Adani Green Energy Ltd continues to maintain a strong leadership position in the renewable energy space, supported by its execution track record and scale advantages. The company has already built an operational capacity of around 17.2 GW, driven by the commissioning of nearly 3 GW in the first nine months of FY26 and about 6 GW over the last twelve months, reflecting a growth of 48 percent year-on-year. However, generation growth has lagged capacity addition, increasing by 35 percent year-on-year, primarily due to lower grid availability and weaker wind plant load factors, particularly in assets with short-term grid connectivity.

The brokerage highlighted that the key operational challenge during the period was lower grid availability, which stood at around 86.6 percent due to delays in transmission augmentation. Curtailment issues were concentrated in major renewable clusters such as Rajasthan and Khavda, and were largely linked to evacuation infrastructure constraints rather than any execution-related issues. Management has indicated that this is a temporary challenge, with visibility on improvement as transmission capacity is being ramped up. Management provided clear visibility on transmission improvement by mentioning that, around 1 GW of augmentation has already been commissioned in Rajasthan, while an additional 2-3 GW from Khavda is expected in the near term, with further improvements targeted by the end of March FY26. As these come online, generation is expected to normalise in the coming quarters.

The Khavda renewable park remains a key growth driver, and the company’s overall locked-in portfolio of more than 34 GW provides strong visibility on future growth, with an estimated EBITDA potential of Rs. 22,600 crore. Given its strong execution capabilities, access to funding, and high-quality renewable resource base, the brokerage continues to view the company positively, although it has slightly reduced its valuation multiple to 15 times from 16 times earlier, factoring in temporary softness in generation. Key risks highlighted include delays in commissioning of under-development projects and lower-than-expected generation.

What Are The Estimates?

On the financial front, ICICI Securities expects the company to report net revenue of Rs. 3,221.6 crore in Q4FY26, reflecting a sequential growth of around 23.6 percent compared to Rs. 2,606 crore reported in Q3FY26, and a year-on-year increase of approximately 19.1 percent from Rs. 2,706 crore in Q4FY25. EBITDA is estimated at Rs. 2,821 crore, which implies a growth of about 25.9 percent quarter-on-quarter from Rs. 2,241 crore and around 17.3 percent year-on-year from Rs. 2,406 crore. EBITDA margins are expected to improve to 87.56 percent, compared to 86 percent in the previous quarter, although slightly lower than 88.91 percent reported in the corresponding quarter last year.

Net profit is expected to come in at Rs. 202.7 crore, indicating a sharp recovery from the significantly weak base of Rs. 5 crore reported in Q3FY26. However, on a year-on-year basis, profit is still expected to decline by around 56.1 percent compared to Rs. 462 crore reported in Q4FY25. Overall, while earnings are expected to improve sequentially as operational challenges ease, the year-on-year comparison may remain impacted due to lower generation and temporary grid-related constraints.

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