Reliance Industries Q4 Results: Will The Hormuz Blockade Impact The Earnings? 

Synopsis: Reliance Industries’ Q4FY26 expectations remain supported by strong refining and petrochemical margins driven by global supply disruptions. Estimates indicate steady earnings and stable margins. However, risks from policy changes and margin volatility remain, making sustainability of current profitability a key factor to watch

The company has informed exchanges that its board will meet on Friday, April 24, 2026, to review and approve its audited standalone and consolidated financial results for the quarter and full year ended March 31, 2026. Investors will also closely watch for any dividend announcement in the upcoming Reliance Industries Q4 results. While the exact timing is not confirmed, the results are likely to be announced after market hours. Here are the estimates from Motilal Oswal an investor should consider before the results come in.

How Did Reliance Industries Perform in Q3FY26

India’s largest company by market capitalisation, Reliance Industries, reported a consolidated net profit of Rs. 18,645 crore in Q3FY26, compared to Rs. 18,540 crore in the same quarter last year. On a sequential basis, profit saw a modest increase of 2.6 percent from Rs. 18,165 crore reported in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, revenue from operations grew by 10.5 percent year-on-year to Rs. 2,69,496 crore from Rs. 2,43,865 crore in Q3FY25, and was higher by around 4 percent sequentially compared to Rs. 2,58,898 crore.

The company reported consolidated EBITDA of Rs. 50,932 crore for the quarter, marking a growth of 6.1 percent on a year-on-year basis. However, EBITDA margins declined to 17.3 percent from 18 percent in the same period last year, indicating some pressure on profitability despite higher revenues.

The Oil-to-Chemicals segment delivered a strong performance during the quarter, supported by improved refining margins and better operational efficiency. Segment revenue stood at around Rs. 1.62 lakh crore, compared to Rs. 1.61 lakh crore in the previous quarter and Rs. 1.49 lakh crore in Q3FY25. EBITDA for the segment increased to Rs. 16,507 crore, up from Rs. 15,008 crore sequentially and Rs. 14,402 crore on a year-on-year basis. EBITDA margins also improved to 10.2 percent, compared to 9.4 percent in Q2FY26 and 9.6 percent in the year-ago quarter, reflecting a recovery in core profitability driven by favourable demand and supply conditions.

What Are The Expectations?

According to Motilal Oswal Financial Services, the outlook for Reliance Industries Ltd remains supported by improving conditions in the global refining and petrochemical markets, largely driven by recent geopolitical disruptions. Tightness in global supply, especially due to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz which handles a significant portion of global oil and LNG trade, along with refinery outages and export restrictions from China, has pushed refining margins sharply higher. As a result, cracks for key fuels like gasoil, gasoline, and jet fuel have risen significantly above long-term averages. Even if geopolitical tensions ease in the near term, supply chain normalization is expected to take time, which could keep margins elevated and benefit the company’s refining and petrochemical segments.

Refining margins have seen a sharp rise in recent weeks due to tighter product availability globally. Current levels of gross refining margins are substantially higher than historical averages, which is expected to support earnings for the oil-to-chemicals segment. The brokerage highlights that for the company, every increase of one dollar per barrel in refining margins can lead to roughly a 2.5 percent rise in consolidated EBITDA, indicating strong operating leverage to margin movements.

On the petrochemical side, prices of key products such as polyethylene and paraxylene have increased in the recent period, supported by supply disruptions and rising raw material costs. Although feedstock prices like naphtha have also moved up sharply, the company remains relatively insulated due to its diversified sourcing strategy, which includes ethane, refinery off-gases, and crude-linked inputs. This flexibility helps in protecting margins even during periods of volatility in crude prices. Additionally, supply disruptions in the Middle East have forced several global producers to cut output, which could further support petrochemical spreads.

Another key advantage highlighted is the company’s flexibility in sourcing crude. While imports of Russian crude had paused in recent months, a temporary waiver from the US government could allow shipments to resume. At the same time, the gradual return of Venezuelan crude to global markets provides an alternative supply source, which the company is capable of processing in meaningful quantities. Historically, Venezuelan crude has contributed a significant portion to its sourcing mix.

However, the brokerage also flags certain risks. One of the key concerns is the reintroduction of export duties on fuels, similar to what was seen earlier, which could limit the upside from higher refining margins. This remains an important monitorable for earnings.

Drawing from past trends, Motilal Oswal notes that global refining margins remained elevated for nearly two years following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as supply chains took time to adjust. During that period, strong margins supported robust performance in the company’s oil-to-chemicals business. This suggests that even if the current disruptions are temporary, the benefits in terms of margins could persist for several quarters.

What Are The Estimates? 

In terms of financial estimates, the brokerage expects the company to report revenue of around Rs. 2,59,800 crore in Q4FY26. EBITDA is estimated at approximately Rs. 45,700 crore, with a margin of 17.6 percent. Profit before tax is projected at Rs. 28,700 crore, while reported profit after tax is expected to come in at around Rs. 18,600 crore, translating to a margin of 7.15 percent. Overall, the estimates reflect strong support from refining and petrochemical margins, although risks related to policy changes and execution remain.

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